Lithium carbonate is the cornerstone of modern lithium-ion battery manufacturing, serving as the primary raw material for cathode materials used in electric vehicles. Without a stable and affordable supply of high-purity lithium carbonate, the entire EV supply chain would struggle to scale production to meet global decarbonization goals. This compound is processed into battery-grade lithium carbonate, which must meet stringent purity standards to ensure optimal energy density and cycle life in EV batteries. As the automotive industry accelerates its transition to electrification, the price trajectory of lithium carbonate has become a critical factor influencing production costs and market strategies. Understanding these dynamics is essential for automakers, battery manufacturers, and lithium chemical suppliers alike.

Ukuphushwa komhlaba kokuthuthwa kwezinto ezihlanzekile kube nomthelela omkhulu ekudingeni izinto zokwakha ze-lithium, kwenza i-lithium carbonate ibe enye yezimpahla ezibhekwa kakhulu ekushintsheni kwamandla. Amazwe afana neChina, i-Australia, neChile abusa emkhakheni wokukhipha nokucubungula i-lithium, kanti abathengi abaphansi eYurophu naseNyakatho Melika bazama ukuvuma izivumelwano zokuhlinzeka zesikhathi eside. Kubantu abanjengoShanghai Oujin Industrial Co., Ltd., ethuthukisa imikhiqizo ye-lithium salt yekhwalithi ephezulu, imakethe eguqukayo iletha amathuba kanye nezinselelo. Ukuzibophezela kwenkampani ekwakheni izinto ezintsha nasekwenzeni izinto ezihlanzekile kuyibeka njengomlingani othembekile endaweni yokubiza eguquguqukayo. Le ndatshana ihlola ukuthambekela kwamuva ekubizeni kwe-lithium carbonate, amandla akhuthaza lezi zinguquko, nokuthi kusho ukuthini embonini yezimoto zikagesi phambili.

Ngemuva kokufinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu elingaphezu kwama-600,000 yuan nge-metric ton ekupheleni kuka-2022, amanani e-lithium carbonate abhekana nokulungiswa okukhulu phakathi kuka-2023 naku-2024, ehla phansi eduze kwama-100,000 yuan nge-ton. Lokhu kuhluleka kwaholelwa yihlanganiso yokuhlinzekwa okweqile okuvela kumaphrojekthi amasha okumbiwa kanye nokwehla kwesikhashana ekukhuleni kwesidingo se-EV ezimakethe ezibalulekile. Nokho, phakathi kuka-2024, amanani aqala ukuzinza phakathi kwama-100,000 kuya kwama-150,000 yuan nge-ton, ebonisa ukuhlela kabusha kwezisekelo zokuhlinzekwa nokudinga. Ukungazinzi kube kubi ngokwezinga lomlando, lapho ukuhamba kwamanani kwegcizelelo kudlula ama-80% kokubili ezindleleni eminyakeni emithathu edlule. Le ndlela yokungazinzi kwamaholo iphumelele ukuba abakhiqizi bamabhethri bacabange kabusha ukuphathwa kwesitoko nezindlela zokuvikela.

Uma kuqhathaniswa amanani amanje namazinga angaphambi kuka-2021, i-lithium carbonate isalokhu iphakeme kakhulu kunezinga lomlando eliphakathi kuka-50,000 kuye ku-80,000 yuan ngelitha, elalikhona phakathi kuka-2015 no-2020. Ukushintsha okukhulu kwesakhiwo phezulu kubangelwa kakhulu ubukhulu bezimboni ezinkulu zamabhethri ezivulwa emhlabeni wonke, ezidinga ukuhlinzekwa okungaguquki, okuningi. Amanani emakethe ashisayo aqhubeka nokushintshashintsha ngokusekelwe kuma-auksheni akahulumeni wenyanga kanye nedatha yokukhiqiza evela ezimbonini ezinkulu zaseShayina. Abahlanganyeli bemboni babheka kakhulu indlela izindleko zokukhipha i-lithium ezivela emanzini anosawoti uma kuqhathaniswa ne-hard-rock lithium, njengoba ukuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe kuzo zombili lezi zindlela kungashintsha amanani esikhathi esizayo. Kubathengi beimikhiqizo ye-lithium salt, ukuqonda lezi zintengo kubalulekile ekuxoxisaneni izinkontileka zokuthenga ezinhle.

Iphuzu elinamandla kakhulu elisekela amanani e-lithium carbonate ukukhula okungapheli kokwamukelwa kwe-EV emhlabeni jikelele, lapho kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo samabhethri sonyaka sidlule ama-terawatt-hours angu-4 ngonyaka ka-2030. Imoto ngayinye kagesi idinga cishe ama-kilogram angu-8 kuya kwangu-12 e-lithium carbonate efanele, okusho ukuthi noma yiziphi izinyuko ezincane emakethe ye-EV ziguqula zibe nezidingo ezinkulu zamathani. Ngasikhathi sinye, izinhlelo zokugcina amandla zokuzinza kwegridi kanye nezinsiza ze-solar zokuhlala ziyaqhamuka njengomgogodla wesibili omkhulu wesidingo, okuqhubeka nokucindezela umfanekiso wokuhlinzeka. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, izikhathi zokuthuthukiswa kwemigodi emisha zinde ziye eminyakeni engu-5–10 ngenxa yokulibaziseka kokuvunyelwa, ukuntuleka kwabasebenzi, nezindleko zokuhambisana nemvelo. Lezi zinkinga zokwakheka zisho ukuthi uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka nge-lithium luphendula kancane ezikhathini zokukhuphuka kwesidingo.

Izinguquko zemakethe eChina, kuhlanganisa nokubuyiselwa kokuhweba ngefutures ye-lithium carbonate ku-Guangzhou Futures Exchange, kuthuthukisile ukutholakala kwamanani kodwa futhi kwengezelele izici ezintsha zokucabanga. Izinguquko zokukhiqiza ezifana nokushintsha kusuka kwi-lithium carbonate kuya kwi-lithium hydroxide ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nezimboni ze-cathode ezine-nickel ephezulu zishintsha umxube wemikhiqizo odingekayo abakhiqizi bamabhethri. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinto eziphathelene nezepolitiki ezifana nokulawulwa kokuthunyelwa phesheya kobuchwepheshe bokucubungula i-lithium kanye nezinkinga zokuhweba phakathi kwezomnotho ezinkulu zengeza izendlalelo zokungaqiniseki kum pricing. Izinkampani ezifana neShanghai Oujin Industrial Co., Ltd.qaphela lezi zinguquko zomthetho ukuze zivumelane nezindlela zazo zokuthola izinto nokukhiqiza. Ukuxhumana kwalawa mandla kudala imvelo yentengo eyinkimbinkimbi efuna izindlela eziyinkimbinkimbi zokuphatha ubungozi kubo bonke abahlanganyeli bemakethe.

Abahlaziyi ezinkampanini ezihamba phambili zokucwaninga ngezimpahla baphinde baphakamise izibikezelo zabo zentengo ye-lithium carbonate phezulu ngo-2025–2026, bencisela ukuthi kukhona ukuncipha kokuhlinzekwa ngenxa yokulibaziseka kokwethulwa kwephrojekthi kanye nezidingo ezinzile eziphumayo. Manje abaningi balindele ukuthi amanani azohweba phakathi kuka-120,000 no-180,000 yuan ngentoni phakathi nalesi sikhathi, okuzosiza ekutshaleni kabusha emandleni amasha okumbiwa. Abantu abaphakathi kwemboni baphawula ukuthi abakhiqizi bezimoto baphinde baqala ukusayina izivumelwano zokuthenga ngqo nabakhiqizi be-lithium ukuze baqinisekise ukubonakala kwentengo nokuhlinzekwa okuqinisekile. Abakhiqizi bezicell zebhethri nabo bafaka imali ezimpahleni ze-lithium eziphezulu ngokusebenzisa ubambiswano kanye nezinkampani ezihlanganyelayo, bephazamisa imingcele ejwayelekile ye-supply chain. Le ndlela yokuhlanganiswa kwezakhiwo ihloselwe ukunciphisa ukuvezwa ekuguquguqukeni kwemakethe ye-spot futhi iqinisekise ukufinyelela ku-lithium carbonate yekhwalithi ye-bhethri.

Abaphathi abavela kubakhiqizi abakhulu bezinto ezisemqoka baphakamisa ukuthi amanani ahlale efanayo, hhayi amanani aphansi, kubaluleke kakhulu ekucabangeni kokutshala imali kwesikhathi eside. Uma amanani e-lithium carbonate ephansi kakhulu, lokhu kuphonsa inselelo ekutshaleni imali emaphrojekthi amasha okukhishwa futhi kudala imbewu yokushoda kokuhlinzekwa okulandelayo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amanani aphezulu aqhubekayo akhuthaza imizamo yokufaka esikhundleni, njengokuthuthukiswa kwamabhethri e-sodium-ion noma i-lithium-sulfur chemistry ezinciphisa ukuthembela ezinsizakusebenza ezibalulekile. Kubahlinzeki bezemithi abagxile kuizixazululo zamasawuni e-lithium ezisezingeni eliphezulu, ukugcina ubumsulwa bomkhiqizo kanye nokwethembeka kokulethwa kuyinzuzo yokuncintisana kungakhathalekile umjikelezo wentengo. Isivumelwano phakathi kwabathintekayo embonini ukuthi imakethe ingene esikhathini sokuguquguquka okwakhiwo okudinga amamodeli ebhizinisi aguquguqukayo kanye nobudlelwano obuqinile bokuhlinzekwa.

Ukwanda nokuncipha kwamanani e-lithium carbonate muva nje kunomthelela oqondile kodwa obambezelekile ezindlekweni zamabhethri e-EV, ezivame ukwakha u-30% kuya ku-40% wezindleko zokukhiqiza imoto. Lapho i-lithium carbonate yenyuka yafinyelela ngaphezu kuka-500,000 yuan ngelitha ekupheleni kuka-2022, amanani amabhethri ashintsha ukwehla kwawo okuhlala njalo futhi enyuka okokuqala eminyakeni eyishumi. Abakhiqizi bezimoto baphoqeleka ukuthi baphakamise amanani ezimoto ze-EV noma bamunce ukuncipha kwenzuzo, okuholela ezinkingeni zokutholakala ezindaweni zemakethe ejwayelekile. Ngokuphambene, ukulungiswa kwamanani ngo-2023 kunikeze isikhala sokuphefumula, okuvumela izinkampani ezifana neTesla neBYD ukuthi zinciphise amanani futhi zikhuthaze isidingo. Umthelela wokudluliselwa ezintweni ezisetshenziswa ekugcineni uthatha cishe izinyanga ezimbili kuya kwezintathu, okusho ukuthi izimo zamanje ze-lithium carbonate zizothonya amanani e-EV kuze kube sekuqaleni kuka-2025.

Abathengi baveza ukuzwa okukhulu kwezindleko, futhi umehluko phakathi kwe-EV kanye nemodeli ye-injini yokushisa efanayo usaqhubeka nokuba yisithiyo esikhulu sokwamukelwa ezimakethe eziningi. Izinqubomgomo zokuncintisana ziyaqhubeka nokuguquka, abanye abakhiqizi bezimoto banikeza amamodeli okuthenga ibhethri ukuze kuhlukaniswe izindleko zokuqala zebhethri nokuthengwa kwemoto. Abanye batshala imali emakhono abo okucubungula i-lithium noma baqinisekisa amanani akhethekile ngokusebenzisa izinkontileka zesikhathi eside nabakhiqizi. Kubathengi bezimboni abahlolaabalingani bokuhlinzekwa kwamakhemikhali e-lithium, izinto ezifana nokungaguquguquki komkhiqizo, ukwethembeka kwesikhathi sokulethwa, nokusekelwa kwezobuchwepheshe kuye ngokuba kubaluleke njengenani lodwa. Umthelela wokugcina ekubeni namandla ezimoto ze-EV uzoncika ekubeni nomkhakha ukwazi ukulawula ukushintshashintsha kwentengo ye-lithium carbonate ngokuhlakanipha okungcono kwemakethe nokuhlukahlukana kwezinto ezihlinzekwayo.

Bheka phambili ku-2026, ukuhlinzekwa kwe-lithium carbonate emhlabeni kubikezelwe ukuthi kuzofinyelela cishe emathuneni angama-1.8 million, kukhuphuka kusuka emathuneni angama-1.2 million ngo-2024, okuholelwa ukwandiswa e-Australia, e-Chile, nase-China. Nokho, ingxenye enkulu yale mikhawulo ebikezelwe incike kumaphrojekthi amasha afinyelela ukukhiqiza okuphelele ngesikhathi, okukhombisile ukuthi kube nethemba eliphezulu emlandweni. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuthengiswa kwe-EV kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule ngesilinganiso esihlanganisiwe sonyaka esingu-20% kuze kube ngu-2026, kanti i-China, i-Europe, ne-North America zihola ushintsho. Izicelo zokugcina amandla zizofaka enye i-300,000 kuya ku-400,000 tons yokufunwa kwe-lithium carbonate efanayo phakathi nalesi sikhathi. Ukulinganiselwa kwemakethe okulindelekile kuzoba kuncane, ngokuthi kube nezinsalela ezincane noma ukuntuleka kuye ngezimo zomnotho ezinkulu kanye nokwesekwa kwezinhlelo.

Izinguquko zobuchwepheshe ekukhishweni kwe-lithium, kuhlanganisa nokukhishwa kwe-lithium ngqo ezindaweni ezinamaminerali namathafa, kunganciphisa kakhulu izindleko zokukhiqiza futhi kwandise isizinda semithombo. Ukuvuselelwa kwamabhethri aphelile nakho kuyathandwa, nezitshalo zokuhlola zibuya ne-lithium carbonate enobukhulu obufanele ukuze isetshenziswe kabusha ekukhiqizeni amabhethri amasha. Imigomo yokulawula e-EU nase-US ibeka imfuneko yokuthi kube khona okuqukethwe okuncane okuvuselelwe kumabhethri amasha, okuzokwakha umthombo owengeziwe ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Kubakhiqizi abaqinile njengeShanghai Oujin Industrial Co., Ltd., ukutshala imali ekuphathweni kobudlelwano bokugaywa kabusha kanye nobuchwepheshe obusimeme bokucubungula kuthuthukisa ukuncintisana kwesikhathi eside. Isibikezelo kuze kube ngu-2026 siphakamisa ukuthi i-lithium carbonate izohlala iyimpahla ebalulekile yamasu futhi eguquguqukayo ngentengo, edinga ukuqapha okukhuthalele imakethe kanye nokuphathwa okunempikiswano kokuhlinzekwa.

Ukwanda kwamanani e-lithium carbonate kuhlala kuyinto ebalulekile embonini yezimoto zikagesimende, kuthinta konke kusuka ezindlekweni zamabhethri kuya ezingeni lokwamukelwa kwabathengi. Umlando wakamuva ukhombisile ukuthi imakethe ingashintsha kusuka ekushodeleni okukhulu kuya ekubeni nokuningi kungakapheli izinyanga ezimbalwa, okubeka inselele izindlela zokuhlela ezijwayelekile. Ababambiqhaza abatshala imali ekucaceni kwezinto ezidingekayo, izinkontileka zesikhathi eside, kanye nemithombo ehlukahlukene bazoba sesimweni esingcono sokubhekana nalezi zinguquko. Indima yabahlinzeki bamachweba akhethekile ekuhlinzekeni i-lithium carbonate esezingeni eliphezulu, elihlanzekile, elingcono kumabhethri ayikwazi ukubaluleka kakhulu kulokhu.

Njengoba umhlaba usiya ekwamukeleni izimoto zikagesi ngobuningi, ukubambisana phakathi kwabakhiqizi bezimoto, abakhiqizi bebhethri, nabakhiqizi belithiyamu kuzoba kubaluleke kakhulu. Amasu afana namabhizinisi ahlangene, izivumelwano zokuthenga, kanye nezinye izinhlelo zokwabelana ngobuchwepheshe kungasiza ekuhleleni izikhuthazo nasekuqiniseni imvelo yemakethe. Izinkampani ezibeka phambili ikhwalithi, ukusimama, nokubambisana namakhasimende—njengoba kuboniswa yi-Shanghai Oujin Industrial Co., Ltd.—zizothola amathuba ngisho noma kunokushintshashintsha kwamanani. Ekugcineni, ukuqonda ubunzima bemakethe ye-lithium carbonate akukhona nje ngokuphatha izindleko; kumayelana nokwakha izixhumanisi zokuhlinzekwa ezizinzile, ezingenawo amalahle ezizokwenza kube nokwenzeka uhambo olusha lwezokuthutha lwekhulu lama-21.