Imakethe yomhlaba wonke ye-lithium carbonate ibone ukuguquguquka okumangalisayo eminyakeni embalwa edlule, iqhutshwa ukukhula okuqhumayo kwezimboni zezimoto zikagesi (EV) kanye nokuguqukela kwamandla okubanzi. I-lithium carbonate, impahla eluhlaza esemqoka yamabhethri e-lithium-ion, ibone intengo yayo iguquguquka kakhulu njengoba ukuhlinzekwa kunzima ukuhambisana nesidingo esikhulayo. Ngo-2022, amanani anyukele ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu, ukuze alungiswe kakhulu ngo-2023 njengoba ukuhlinzekwa okusha kutholakala futhi ukukhula kwesidingo kuncipha. Ukuqonda izinto ezithinta ukuhlinzekwa kwe-lithium carbonate kubalulekile kumabhizinisi athembele kule nto ebalulekile, kusuka kubakhiqizi bamabhethri kuya kubakhiqizi bezimoto. Lesi sihloko sihlinzeka ngokuhlaziya okuphelele kwezimo zokuhlinzekwa nezinselelo ezakha imakethe ye-lithium carbonate ngo-2024, sinikeza imininingwane esebenzayo kubantu abathintekayo embonini. Sizohlola abashayeli abasemqoka bokuhlinzekwa, okubandakanya ukuguquguquka kwentengo, imikhawulo yezemvelo, kanye neminye imithelela yezombusazwe, futhi sihlaziye imiphumela yazo ezintengweni zesikhathi esizayo.

Njengoba imakethe ye-lithium carbonate iqhubeka nokushintsha, amabhizinisi kufanele ahlale enolwazi mayelana nentuthuko yakamuva ekuhlinzekeni nasekwesetshenzisweni. Ukuguqukela ekuhambeni ngogesi namandla avuselelekayo kudala isidingo esingakaze sibe khona samabhethri e-lithium-ion, okubuye kuholele esidingweni sokuhlinzekwa kwe-lithium carbonate okuthembekile. Kodwa-ke, indlela yokwandisa ukukhiqiza igcwele izinselele, okubandakanya imithetho yezemvelo, ukungaqiniseki kwezepolitiki, kanye nobunzima obukhona bokukhulisa imisebenzi yokumba nokucubungula. Lesi sihloko sihluza lezi zinselele ngokuningiliziwe, sinikeza imephu yokuqonda izinto eziyinkimbinkimbi ezidlala indima. Siphinde sigqamise indima yabadlali ababalulekile embonini, njenge-Shanghai Oujin Industrial Co., Ltd., ekuhlinzekeni imikhiqizo ye-lithium salt esezingeni eliphezulu ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nesidingo somhlaba wonke. Ekupheleni kwalesi sihloko, abafundi bazoba nokuqonda okujulile kwezinto ezibumba imakethe ye-lithium carbonate kanye namasu adingekayo ukuze bazulazule ngempumelelo. Ukuze uthole isifinyezo esijwayelekile senkampani yethu kanye neminikelo yayo, sicela uvakasheleIKHAYA ikhasi.

Intengo ye-lithium carbonate ibe yinto enkulu exoxwayo emhlabeni wezimpahla, njengoba ukungazinzi kwayo kunemiphumela eqondile kuyo yonke imboni yokubonelela ngebhethri le-lithium. Ngemuva kokufinyelela phezulu ku-RMB angaphezu kuka-600,000 ngelitha ekupheleni kuka-2022, intengo ye-lithium carbonate yehla yaba cishe ku-RMB 100,000 ngelitha ekuqaleni kuka-2024, okubonisa isimo esikhulu sokudlula kokuhlinzekwa. Lokhu kwehle okukhulu kuqhutshwe yizinto eziningi, okubandakanya ukwanda okusheshayo kwamandla okukhipha i-lithium e-Australia naseNingizimu Melika, kanye nokwamukelwa kwezimoto zikagesi okuhamba kancane kunokulindelekile kwezinye izimakethe ezibalulekile. Izindleko zokukhiqiza nazo zibe yinto ebalulekile, njengoba abakhiqizi abanezindleko eziphakeme, ikakhulukazi labo abasebenzisa imayela eliqinile e-Australia, baphoqeleke ukuthi banciphise ukukhiqiza ukuze bahlale benenzuzo. Ukuhlobana phakathi kwentengo ye-lithium carbonate nezindleko zokukhiqiza kuyinto enkulu ezonquma isimo esizayo sokuhlinzekwa, njengoba amanani aphansi aqhubekayo angaholela ekuvalweni kwezimayela nasekunciphisweni kokutshalwa kwezimali. Ezinkampanini ezincikene ne-lithium carbonate, ukuqonda lezi zikhathi zamanani kubalulekile ukuphathwa kwezimpahla namasu ezinkontileka zesikhathi eside. Izinkampani ezifana ne-Shanghai Oujin Industrial Co., Ltd., ezisebenza ngemikhiqizo ye-lithium salt esezingeni eliphezulu, kufanele zihambe kulezi zinguquko zamanani ukuze zigcine ukuhlinzekwa okuzinzile kumakhasimende azo.

Izinkinga zemvelo ezihlobene nokukhiqizwa kukalithiyamu sezikhule kakhulu, zibeka izinselele ezinkulu ekwandisweni kokuhlinzekwa. Izindlela zokukhiqiza zikathiyamu ezivamile, ikakhulukazi ukubilisa kwamanzi anosawoti eLithium Triangle yaseNingizimu Melika (Chile, Argentina, Bolivia), zidinga amanzi amaningi futhi zingaphazamisa imvelo yendawo nemiphakathi. Ngokwesibonelo, iSalar de Atacama eChile, enye yezindawo ezinkulu kakhulu ezikhiqiza uLithium emhlabeni, ibhekane nokuhlolwa okukhulu mayelana nokusetshenziswa kwamanzi nomthelela wayo emphakathini wabantu bomdabu kanye nezindawo ezihlukile zamahlane anosawoti. E-Australia, ukukhiqizwa kukalithiyamu emayini yamatshe kuphakamise ukukhathazeka mayelana nokusetshenziswa kwamandla, ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni, nokuphathwa kwemidala. Lezi zinkinga zemvelo ziholele emithethweni eqinile, ukubambezeleka kwezimvume, nokwanda kokuphikiswa komphakathi, konke lokhu okunciphisa amandla abakhiqizi okwandisa ukuhlinzekwa ngokushesha. Ngenxa yalokho, imboni iyachitha kakhulu ubuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza obusimeme kakhulu, njengokukhiqizwa kukalithiyamu okuqondile (DLE), okuthembisa ukunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwamanzi nomthelela emvelo. Ukubhekana nalezi zinselele zemvelo akuyona nje imfuneko yemithetho kodwa futhi kuyinzuzo yokuncintisana, njengoba amakhasimende asebenzisa ukusimama ekuphakeleni kwawo.

Izifundo zamacala ezivela emhlabeni wonke zigqamisa ukushintshana okuyinkimbinkimbi okubandakanyeka ekukhiqizeni i-lithium. E-Chile, ukwanda okuhlongozwayo kokukhiqizwa kwe-lithium kuye kwabhekana nezinselelo zomthetho nemibhikisho yomphakathi, kugcizelelwa isidingo sokuzibandakanya okunamandla komphakathi nokunakekelwa kwemvelo. E-Australia, umkhiqizi omkhulu we-lithium, izinkampani zitshala imali emandleni avuselelekayo ukuze zisebenzise imisebenzi yazo yokumba futhi zinciphise ukungcola kwazo kwekhabhoni. Ngaleso sikhathi, e-China, uhulumeni ubeke amazinga angqongqothelene kakhulu emvelo ezindaweni zokucubungula i-lithium, okuholele ekuvalweni okwesikhashana kweminye imisebenzi. Le mizekelo ibonisa ukuthi izinkinga zemvelo azizona nje izindaba eziseceleni kodwa izinto eziyinhloko ezingathinta ngqo ukutholakala nezindleko ze-lithium carbonate. Ezinkampanini eziseketangeni lokuhlinzekwa kwe-lithium, okubandakanya i-Shanghai Oujin Industrial Co., Ltd., ukubonisa ukuzibophezela ekuziphatheni kahle kwemvelo kubalulekile ukuze kugcinwe ukufinyelela ezimalini nokwethenjwa ngamakhasimende. Ukushintsha ngasekuqhubekeni kokukhiqizwa kwe-lithium okusimeme cishe kuzoshesha eminyakeni ezayo, kuphinde kube nombono wokuncintisana embonini.

Izici ze-geopolitical kanye nezinqubomgomo zikahulumeni zidlala indima ebaluleke kakhulu ku-lithium supply chain, kuthinta konke kusuka ekuhambeni kwezimali kuya kumaphethini okuhweba. Ukugxila kwezindawo eziningi ze-lithium emazweni ambalwa, okubandakanya i-Australia, i-Chile, i-Argentina, ne-China, kudala ukuncika kwamasu manje okubonwa ohulumeni emhlabeni wonke. Ngokwesibonelo, uhulumeni waseShayina ubuye ube nentshisekelo ekutholeni izinsiza ze-lithium phesheya ngokusebenzisa izimali ezisekelwa nguhulumeni emaphrojekthi ase-Afrika naseNingizimu Melika, ngenkathi futhi uqinisa amakhono okucubungula asekhaya. Impendulo, i-United States ne-European Union baye bengenisa izinqubomgomo zokusekela ukumba nokucubungula i-lithium yasekhaya, njenge-Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) e-U.S., enikeza izikhuthazo zezinto ezisetshenziswa emabhathini ezitholakala endaweni. Imikhawulo yokutshala izimali kanye nezingqikithi zokuphepha kwezwe nazo ziyakwakha imakethe, njengoba amazwe efuna ukunciphisa ukuncika kubahlinzeki bangaphandle ezinsizeni ezibalulekile. Lezi zimo zezombangazwe zingaholela ekuphazamisekeni kokuhlinzekwa, izithiyo zokuhweba, kanye nezintengo eziphakeme ze-lithium carbonate ezitholakala ezifundeni ezithile. Ezebhizinisi, ukuqonda indawo ye-geopolitical kubalulekile ekuhloliseni ubungozi bokuhlinzekwa kanye nokuhlukahlukana kwamasu okuthola izinto. Izinkampani ezifana ne-Shanghai Oujin Industrial, esekelwe e-China futhi esebenza emhlabeni wonke, kufanele zihambe kulezi zimo eziyinkimbinkimbi zezombangazwe ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuhlinzekwa okuthembekile kumakhasimende azo omhlaba wonke.

Ukubheka phambili kwentengo ye-lithium carbonate ngo-2024 kuthonywa ukusebenzisana kokukhula kokuhlinzekwa, izitayela zokufunwa, kanye nezingqinamba ezibalwe ngenhla. Ngakolunye uhlangothi lokuhlinzekwa, amaphrojekthi amasha okukhipha i-lithium e-Argentina, e-Chile, nase-Afrika kulindeleke ukuthi engeze amandla amakhulu, okungase kugcine imakethe inokuhlinzekwa ngokweqile. Kodwa-ke, isivinini sokukhula kokuhlinzekwa asiqinisekile, njengoba ukubambezeleka kwemvume yemvelo, ukuphikiswa komphakathi, kanye namanani aphansi kungaholela ekubambezelekeni noma ekukhanselweni kwamaphrojekthi. Ngakolunye uhlangothi lokufunwa, imakethe yomhlaba wonke ye-EV iyaqhubeka nokukhula, yize ngesivinini esibuyela emuva, kanti izinhlelo zokugcina amandla ezivuselelekayo ziyavela njengomthombo omusha obalulekile wokufunwa kwamabhethri e-lithium-ion. Umphumela wokugcina walezi zitayela uphakamisa ukuthi amanani e-lithium carbonate angase ahlale engaphansi esikhathini esifushane, kodwa anamandla amakhulu okukhuphuka uma ukukhula kokuhlinzekwa kungaphumeleli noma ukufunwa kukhula ngokushesha. Ezinkampanini ezisebenzisa i-lithium carbonate, lokhu kusho ukuthi ukuqapha ngokucophelela izimo zemakethe kanye namasu okuphakathi okuguquguqukayo kubalulekile. Imakethe ye-lithium carbonate cishe izohlala iguquguquka ngo-2024, amanani ashintshashintsha ngokuphendula izindaba mayelana nentuthuko yamaphrojekthi, izinguquko zenqubomgomo, kanye nezimo zomnotho ezibanzi.

Imiphumela yalezi zimo zamanani iyadlula ngaphezu kwezindleko zezinto ezisetshenziswa; zithinta izinqumo zokutshala izimali, ukubeka amanani emikhiqizo, kanye nempilo yezezimali yezinkampani kulo lonke uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa. Kubakhiqizi bemikhiqizo kasawoti we-lithium, njenge-Shanghai Oujin Industrial Co., Ltd., ukugcina ukusebenza kahle kanye nekhwalithi yomkhiqizo kubalulekile ezikhathini zokucindezelwa kwamanani. Amakhasimende asezingeni eliphansi, okubandakanya abakhiqizi be-cathode nabakhiqizi bebhethri, ngokwengeziwe abheka ukubopha izivumelwano zesikhathi eside zokuhlinzekwa ukuze kuncishiswe ukungazinzi kwamanani. Ukuthuthukiswa kwezinkontileka ze-lithium futures e-China nakwezinye izimakethe nakho kunikeza amathuluzi amasha okubhekana nengozi yamanani, okuvumela ukuphathwa kwezingozi okuyinkimbinkimbi kakhudlwana. Ekugcineni, imakethe ye-lithium carbonate ngo-2024 izobonakala ngokulungiswa nokuziphendukela kwemvelo, njengoba imboni ivuthwa futhi yenza ngokuvumelana nemodeli entsha yokuhlinzekwa nokufunwa. Izinkampani ezingakwazi ukuzulazula kuleli cala kahle, ngamakhono aqinile okusebenza kanye nombono wamasu, zizoba sesikhundleni esingcono kakhulu sokuphumelela.

Imakethe ye-lithium carbonate ngo-2024 isesikhathini esibalulekile, esichazwa izinselele ezinkulu zokuhlinzekwa kanye nezidingo eziguqukayo. Ukushintshashintsha kwamanani, izinkinga zemvelo, kanye nemithelela yezombusazwe yizinto ezintathu ezibalulekile ezizobumba indawo yokuhlinzekwa eminyakeni ezayo. Ngenkathi imakethe njengamanje ibhekene nesikhathi sokuhlinzekwa ngokweqile kanye namanani aphansi, ukukhula kwezidingo ezakhiweyo kusuka emikhakheni ye-EV kanye nokugcinwa kwamandla kunikeza isisekelo esiqinile sempilo yemakethe yesikhathi eside. Noma kunjalo, imboni kufanele ibhekane nezinselele zemvelo nezenhlalo ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukukhula kokuhlinzekwa okuzinzile nokuzwakalayo. Indima yezinto zezombusazwe nayo izoqhubeka nokukhula, njengoba ohulumeni befuna ukuqinisekisa ukufinyelela kule minerali ebalulekile. Ezinkampanini ezisebenza kule ndawo, okubandakanya i-Shanghai Oujin Industrial Co., Ltd., ukuhlala unolwazi futhi ukwazi ukuzivumelanisa nezimo kubalulekile ukuze kugcinwe umkhawulo wokuncintisana. Ukuzibophezela kwenkampani emikhiqizweni ye-lithium salt esezingeni eliphezulu kanye nokwaneliseka kwamakhasimende kuyibeka kahle ukuthi isebenze izidingo eziguqukayo zemakethe yomhlaba. Ukufunda kabanzi ngemikhiqizo namakhono ethu, sicela uvakashele i-Imikhiqizo ikhasi noma Xhumana Nathiukuze uthole imibuzo. Siphinde sikukhuthaze ukuthi uhlole i-Ibhulogi ukuze uthole imininingwane yakamuva yomkhakha nezibuyekezo. Impumelelo yakho emakethe ye-lithium iqala ngezinqumo ezinolwazi nabalingani abathembekile.

Lesi sihloko sisebenzisa imithombo ehlukahlukene eshicilelwe kanye nedatha yomkhakha ukuhlinzeka ngohlaziyo olunembayo noluphelele lwemakethe ye-lithium carbonate. Imithombo eyinhloko ihlanganisa imibiko evela ku-Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, i-S&P Global Commodity Insights, kanye ne-International Energy Agency (IEA), enikeza idatha ngamanani e-lithium, ukuhlinzekwa, kanye nesidingo. Izincwadi zomkhakha ezifana ne-Mining.com kanye ne-Reuters nazo ziye zabhekiselwa ezindabeni ezithile zamaphrojekthi kanye nentuthuko yenqubomgomo. Ukuhlaziya umthelela wezemvelo, izifundo ezivela kumagazini wezemfundo kanye nemibiko ye-World Wildlife Fund (WWF) kanye nezinye izinhlangano ezingezona ezikahulumeni zinikeza imibono ebalulekile ngokusimama kokukhiqizwa kwe-lithium. Sincoma ukuthi abafundi babheke le mithombo ngqo ukuze bathole ulwazi oluningiliziwe kakhulu kanye nezibuyekezo zakamuva emakethe. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuze uthole ulwazi olwengeziwe oluqondene nenkampani, sicela uvakashele i-Mayelana Nathi ikhasi ukuze ufunde ngomlando wethu nokuzibophezela kwethu ekuqineni embonini ye-lithium.